Epidemic Simulator

Epidemic Simulator

Hi! This is a simple, cohort-based epidemic simulation. More details.

Day Total sick Total healthy Total cured Total deceased

Sick People

Healthy People

Cured People

Deceased People

Age Cohorts: Sick People

Age Cohorts: Deceased People

Age Cohorts: Sick People People (with reference)

Age Cohorts: Deceased People (with reference)

Age-Related Mortality (percent)

Simulation Details

The simulation starts with a given pool of infected people, which fall sick for a given amount of days and have a given chance of dying during their sickness, with a mortality that depends on their age (see above). A sick person will infect a given number of other people while sick, the total number of infections over the course of the sickness is given as the infection rate (you can tune this parameter). Only healthy people can be infected, i.e. once someone is cured we assume that person cannot be infected again. Also, we assume that the infection rate is based on the number of interactions with other people from the population, hence when the number of healthy vs. cured and infected people decreases in a given age cohort, the chance of infecting someone from that cohort also decreases.

We use the age distribution of the German population to evaluate the effect of the infection on different age cohorts. By varying the infection rate you can get a feeling for how different rates affect the number of deceased people, the speed of the spreading of the infection and the maximum number of infected people.

Feel free to suggest improvements and contribute to this project on Github .

This is not a realistic simulation, it only provides a (hopefully) intuitive way to visualize the relationship between infection rate and the spreading of the infection through the population.